GWPF to Co-Host Webinar on Reforming Environmental Science

The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) in the UK has joined with the AEF to co-host the webinar on reforming the quality of environmental research, which is to be held on Zoom on 24 November 2020.

Like the AEF, the GWPF is a rather unique environmental organisation in that it is interested in more than simply protecting the environment regardless and the cost and other implications of doing so. .

The two organisations are alike in many of the respects that matter — we both value sound science and rigorous evidence.— but we also differ in some others.

For its part, the GWPF is an all-party and non-party think tank and a registered educational charity. While the AEF is also a registered educational charity, it has quite consciously eschewed recruiting politicians to its Board in the interest of .

Both the AEF and the GWPF are open-minded about the contested science of global warming. Both also share a deep concern about the costs and other implications of many of the public policies that are currently being advocated to address global warming.

The GWPF was launched by Lord Lawson of Balby — a current Member of the UK House of Lords and former Chancellor of the Exchequer — and Dr Benny Peiser — the current Director of GWPF — in the run-up to the Copenhagen Climate Summit. It is based in London. A link to the GWPF website is here.

Harry Wilkinson, the Head of Policy at GWPF, and Jeffrey Rae, the Executive Director of AEF. will be the co-hosts of the webinar and will share the hosting duties on Zoom.

Reforming Quality Assurance in Environmental Science

The AEF will host a free webinar on the reforms that are urgently needed to quality assurance (QA) systems and practices in environmental science. It will take place on 24 November 2020, from 7:30 to 8:30 pm Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) and will be conducted on Zoom so as to allow participation from all over Australia, as well as abroad.

This webinar is the latest in a continuing series of events held by AEF to commemorate the life and work of Prof. Bob Carter, a former Director and Scientific Adviser, who died in 2016.

Our speakers are all well-known in their respective fields and knowledgeable about these issues. They are: geophysicist, Dr Peter Ridd; science blogger, Jo Nova; and economist, Alan Moran. All three are currently AEF Directors and Dr Ridd is its Scientific Adviser.

They will briefly survey the recent QA failures in the science than underpins three key environmental policy areas — the Great Barrier Reef, bushfire prevention and managment, and the Murray-Darling Basin — before engaging in a panel discussion of how to reform of QA systems and practices in environmental science.

The discussion will be open-ended but will focus on answers to the following questions:

• Do we need independent audits of individual research projects?

• Which elements of a research project should be audited and by whom?

• How should we manage and fund studies to test the replicability of policy-critical research?

• Should the conduct of publicly-funded research projects be fully transparent to the public?

• Should governments set up independent bodies to regulate QA practices in such research?

• How should we protect such regulators from capture by those who are meant to be regulated?

Other webinar participants will be able to use Zoom’s Q&A feature to submit questions to the panel.

Those who wish to participate must register in advance at the webpage created for this event at the Zoom website. Zoom will email each registrant the full details of how they can join the virtual ‘webinar room’ at the appropriate time.

At the end of this week, AEF will announce the URL for webinar registration on its website and email the details to those on its mailing lists. Anyone who is interested in receiving this email can do so by signing up for AEF News and Commentary. The Subscription form  is located on the right hand side of very page of this website.

Few Replication Studies in Environmental Science

A recent survey in PeerJ — a multidisciplinary bioscience journal — by one of its academic editors has found that only 0.023 per cent of the ecology and evolution literature involved successful replication studies. In absolute terms, this is nine replications out of 38,730 papers published in one access journals. The survey is here.

For more than a decade, science has been convulsed by the world-wide phenomenon known as the replication crisis. The term refers to the fact that most of the independent attempts to replicate the findings of previous published research have failed to do so, and when such failures have ben reported in the literature they have generally been ignored.

All the scientific disciplines have been affected by the crisis and most have tried to do something about it. As a result there has been an increase in the prevalence of published replication studies, albeit from a very low historical base.

Not so in the environmental sciences, it seems.

The PeerJ survey found that only two of the 11 original-replication study pairs had sufficient detail for the author to conduct a formal analysis of replication success. He concluded that two teams had correctly concluded their replication was successful, but disagreed that a third team had conducted a failed replication, as it had claimed.

Subsequently Ecology and Evolution published a survey of environmental scientists to gauge their understanding of and opinions about replication studies in their fields. The published paper is here.

The majority of respondents considered replication studies were important (97 per cent), not prevalent enough (91 per cent), worth funding even given limited resources (61 per cent), and suitable for publication in all journals (62 per cent).

There is a vast gap between this expressed enthusiasm and the prevalence of replication studies in the literature. For example, the prevalence rate, reported above, is three magnitudes below the median estimate of 10 per cent given by survey respondents. A gap of this magnitude suggests that either the respondent have faked the enthusiasm or are profoundly ignorant of the literature in their discipline.

For their part, the survey authors thought the gap might be due to the difficulties involved in getting funding for replication studies, conducting them, and having their results published.

National Water Week reveals ‘policy drought’

READ HERE

Low Emissions Technology Statement: a (hydrogen) bomb

….. READ HERE

The Bill Comes Due for Renewable Energy

Published in Quadrant Online, 24 August 2020

Since 2002 Australian governments have introduced climate policies to reduce carbon dioxide.  This has caused high cost and low reliability wind and solar to displace cheap coal and gas power. Our electricity prices, once the lowest in the world, have become one of the most expensive. …..READ MORE

No Koalas in NSW by 2050?

A NSW Parliamentary Committee has forecast that, without urgent government action, by 2050 there will be no koalas in NSW [LINK HERE].

In 2016 the NSW Government adopted a State-wide estimate of 36,000 koalas for the purposes of designing and administering the measures to protect them and their habitat. The NSW Chief Scientist proposed this number [LINK HERE], which was taken from the published results of a survey of the views of 16 scientists working in the field [LINK HERE].

Concerns about the future of the koala in NSW, led the Planning and Environment Portfolio Committee of the NSW Legislative Council to review of the situation and outlook for local populations and their habitats.

The Committee received different views on how many koalas lived in NSW and what was the best way to survey their numbers. Some were from environmental scientists, many from environmental activists, and not a few from people who are both of those things.

The differences were profound and, in part, reflect the practical difficulties involved. In the wild, the number of koalas per hectare is generally very low, individuals are difficult to identify, and there is much we do not know about the koala and how it behaves. In his oral evidence to the Committee, Professor Matthew Crowther, an ecologist with the School of Life and Environmental Sciences at the University of Sydney [LINK HERE], summarised the difficulties this way:

“I would not want to give [an estimate for NSW] because we do not know. Many populations are very low density and very hard to estimate. Many of the methods rely on having so many koalas to count for some accuracy of the estimation.”

Professor Crowther added that the difficulty of predicting how a given habitat will change over time meant that scientists could not forecast the size of its koala population at any time in the future.

The Committee could have made a useful contribution to resolving some of this uncertainty, at least from a public policy perspective. For example, it could have actively facilitated a structured and open debate among the relevant scientists to see what might emerge from it in terms of a more nuanced understanding of the disputed science. In parallel it could have widened the debate to include scientists from our disciplines, such as statisticians and complex systems specialists.

Instead the Committee decided to ignore Professor Crowther’s advice completely. It concluded that the current offical estimate was outdated and unreliable; and therefore the NSW Koala Strategy was a failure.

Black Summer: the 2019-20 Bushfires

The Editors of the scientific journal Australian Forestry have reviewed the state of our knowledge of the causes and environmental consequences of the devastating bushfires that disfigured the 2019-20 summer with the loss of 33 lives and 3,100 homes [LINK HERE].

The Black Summer bushfires burnt an area totalling 10.2 million hectares. This consisted of native forest, commercial plantations, and other forest areas. The estimates were prepared for Australian Forestry by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) using the National Forest Inventory and other Australian Government spatial datasets.

Some 8.2 million hectares were burnt areas of native forest — equivalent to 6 per cent of all Australian native forest — mostly in nature conservation reserves and multiple-use public forests. These varied by State but were concentrated in NSW, Victoria and WA.

The Australian Forestry Editors conclude that the 2019-20 bushfires provide important insights into, and raise profound questions about, land management generally and, in particular, the management of bushfire risk through regular prescribed burning on all types of land tenure.

On the latter point they note that:

“…the current fire management will not, or is unlikely to, sustain the full range of ecosystem processes and biodiversity, nor reduce to an acceptable level the impact of wildfires on local and rural communities, forests and ecological communities, biodiversity and wood resources.”

Peter Ridd to advise Global Warming Policy Foundation

The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) in the UK has appointed Professor Peter Ridd to its Academic Advisory Committee [LINK HERE].

Professor Ridd’s most recent research has focussed on improving Quality Assurance in the science used in public policy.

In August 2019, he gave a series of public lectures on this issue, which focussed on the quality of the research into human impacts on water quality across the Great Barrier Reef; the lectures were hosted by AEF to commemorate the live and work of Professor Bob Carter.

Professor Carter had been one of Professor Ridd’s colleagues at JCU and the two had much in common, both professionally and personally — marine geophysical research, a strong commitment to scientific rigour and intellectual independance, AEF Directorships, and scientific advisory roles in both AEF and GWPF.

The GWPF is an apolitical think tank and registered educational charity, which is open-minded about the contested science of global warming but deeply concerned about the costs and other implications of many of the policy measures that are being advocated to address it. Lord Lawson of Blaby, a current member of the UK House of Lords and a former Chancellor of the Exchequer in Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Government, was one its co-founders. The other was Dr Bennny Peiser, who is currently the Director of the GPWF.

The GWPF’s Academic Advisory Council is a group of scientists, economists and other experts who provide the Foundation with timely scientific, economic and policy advice. It reviews and evaluates new GWPF reports and papers, explores future research projects, and makes recommendations on issues related to climate research and policy.

Climate Change Cycles

The Climate Study Group has published an advertorial in “The Weekend Australian” explaining how variations in the amount of energy the Earth receives from the Sun have caused cyclical changes to the Earth’s climate. For the benefit of our readers, we have reproduced it here.

To Rebuild Manufacturing: Cut Energy Costs→

Alan Moran, The Spectator Australia, 2 June 2020

In one of the most challenging commentaries by a senior politician, former resources minister Matt Canavan, advocates leaving the Paris Agreement under which Australia has agreed to take actions that will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.  He argues that Australia cannot afford to meet the treaty obligations which require replacing electricity generated from coal by expensive wind and solar. The subsidies this requires drive up the cost of energy and, with our high wage economy, prevents us having a vibrant manufacturing sector.  ….. Read more ….. pdf version

Carbon Tax: Why Morrison's leaving door open?

Alan Moran, The Spectator Australia, 20 May 2020

As part of the ABC’s climate conspiracy agenda, Four Corners this week highlighted the “anger” at the government from the senior mandarins from its failure to deliver their goal of a carbon tax.  Their preferred approach was notwithstanding the tax rate would today have to be $US100 per tonne, a staggering $80 billion a year impost. ….. READ MORE …..PDF VERSION

Revealed: the Deep Green State

Alan Moran, The Spectator Australia, 24 March 2020

A story in the Guardian demonstrates the impotence of government against the Deep State machinery that it nominally controls. 

This involved an attempt, in line with government policy, to divert money from the Emissions Reduction Fund to less harmful activities than efficiency-undermining promotion of green energy that it normally funds. The case under review was an attempt by Delta Energy to get some $14 million support for refurbishing its Vales Point plant, an outcome that would extend the plant’s life (and incidentally reduce its greenhouse gas emissions). The Guardian notes that “energy baron” Trevor St Baker is a part owner of the plant. 

The Emissions Reduction Fund was set up by the Abbott Government following its election in 2013. Its Environment Minister, Greg Hunt, was an avid promoter of “direct action” which involves buying out firms’ greenhouse gas emissions rather than reducing emissions by taxing coal. In fact, buying out emissions simply funds canny firms who can offer a good story, while providing negligible effects on total emissions, since the cashiered production ..... Read more     pdf version

Energy in Danandrewstan: 2 Steps Forward, 1 Back

Alan Moran, The Spectator Australia, 18 March 2020

The latest energy policy from the Victorian Government is to place a constitutional ban on fracking and coal seam gas exploration but once again permit the search for conventional gas in the state.   

The proposed policy was developed in consultation with an industry/activist Independent Stakeholder Advisory Panel. The panel was chaired by the Lead Scientist, Amanda Caples, a pharmacologist, who was previously responsible for developing the state’s “strategic industry growth plans”. In announcing the policy, the Premier said it was “a science-based approach”. Presumably, he had in mind political science. 

The exploration bans were first implemented in 2012 by the Coalition government under the then minister for energy — and now opposition leader — Michael O’Brien. For the Coalition back in 2012 seeking to blunt opposition from green radicals, a ban on new gas supplies seemed like good cynical policy. 

There were ample supplies of Bass Strait gas and some farmers opposed gas exploration, with others wanting more  ..... Read more          pdf version

Last thing we need: costly climate ‘virtue signalling’

Alan Moran, The Spectator Australia, 10 March 2020

Desperate to attend the September 2020 Glasgow climate change summit with a positive program, the Coalition government continues to promote, at the expense of national living standards, elitist-appealing measures that force lower greenhouse gas emissions. 

The new elixir is to boost investment in CO2-free hydrogen technologies which, if not mystical, hardly require funding from Australian taxpayers.  New support measures add to the $1.5 billion annual funding of a bewildering acronymic gaggle of institutions (including CEFC, ARENA, CER and CSIRO) and at least $2 billion in subsidies to wind and solar.   

The Glasgow meeting is the third phase of climate change programs.   

The first phase was established by the Kyoto Agreement in 1997, in which rich nations pledged to stabilise their emissions.  Although only ..... Read more

The sickly state of the National Electricity Market

Alan Moran, The Spectator Australia, 26 February 2020

This year’s annual report from the regulatory collective that is the Energy Security Board awards itself gongs for overseeing a (temporary) spot price decline and assembling an armoury if new tools to prevent catastrophe from a system poisoned by renewable energy subsidies. Unfortunately, it declines to illuminate the additional costs this has entailed, preferring instead to give cover to the politics behind the demise of the industry’s efficiency.   ​

The report is a consensus by the peak energy body itself and its three sister regulators, the Australian Energy Market Commission, which has custody over the market rules; the Australian Energy Regulator responsible for setting network prices; and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), responsible for scheduling supplies and ensuring supply/demand balance. It addresses the “challenge” to:  ….. READ MORE

Environmental politics threaten traditional allegiances, world trade

Alan Moran, The Spectator Australia, 10 February 2020

Some 172 years ago Karl Marx opened the modern era of politics in proclaiming that a spectre was haunting Europe. The spectre he referred to was in the title of his “Communist Manifesto”. ​

Marx was talking in the context of the series of political disturbances in major European capital cities in 1848.  He interpreted these as bookending the ancien regime, the evolution from which had been brutally signalled in 1789 with the French Revolution and perhaps even back in 1649 when Charles I paid the price for his “high crimes and misdemeanours”. Marx saw the events of 1848 as presaging revolution and a new era of peace and prosperity where private property would be abolished and income would be earned “by each according to his abilities” and apportioned “to each according to his needs”.    …. READ MORE 

Governments created this Murray-Darling crisis

The Murray-Darling is the only major region where irrigation plays a prominent role. Water availability there has the urgent attention of politicians because locals, unhappy at measures that have deprived farmers of water, have helped displace Nationals representatives in favour of those from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. Drought Minister David Littleproud is to meet farming representatives on Tuesday to discuss a fivefold increase in prices of Murray-Darling water. The minister attributes this to speculator hoarding together with another villain, climate change, which he says “is leading to hotter days, meaning droughts”. Neither of these factors are the cause of the farmers’ discontent. Although the Murray-Darling, like much of Australia, is in serious drought, this is not unusual. Other areas are seeing record rainfall; for Australia as a whole, rainfall has increased during the past century. As for the minister’s attack on speculators, he targets an ever-convenient and populist scapegoat. …..READ MORE

Sacrificed on Victoria’s Green Altar

Victoria is the vanguard of states in major struggles over the control and use of public lands.  These comprise around 35 per cent of the state, the majority of which is in parks and reserves that aim to minimise human impact. Such areas have long been seen as under-managed and infested with exotic flora and fauna. They are increasingly recognised as perilous host to ferocious and destructive fires.

The rest of the public land is state forest, traditionally available for forestry, grazing, mining and a whole range of leisure activities such car rallies, hunting, horse riding, camping and dog walking, none of which are generally permitted in National Parks.

Two developments are changing the nature of Victoria’s public lands. The first is increasing restrictions on the activities allowed in the state forests. Over the past 30 years governments have progressively constrained the use of the forests for timber harvesting and grazing.  Grazing has been all but eliminated and only 6 per cent of Victoria’s public forests are available for timber production, the annual harvesting area having been reduced from 25,000 hectares 40 years ago to just 3,000 hectares today.  …..READ MORE

Good sense sold up the River

Earlier this week some 3,000 irrigators and their supporters rallied in Canberra against government policy on Murray-Darling irrigation and management.  With the  cacophony of dozens of semi-trailers’ blaring horns, it was certainly noisy. Ominously for the National Party, their representatives were treated with considerable hostility, particular anger being directed at water Minister David Littleproud. Enduring the jeers, the Nationals would have been especially dismayed at the warm welcome for Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.

The current drought has exacerbated a contrived water shortage that government policy has engineered in the Murray. Having set a cap on water extractions in 1999 — roughly a third of the average flow — the productive uses of this “working river” have been gradually reduced.  As a supplier of a vital agricultural input to a formerly barren area that grew to supply 40 per cent of the nation’s farm produce, the river has been de-rated.  At a cost of $13 billion, some 20 per cent of the flow has been diverted to “environmental” use. This has caused a five- to ten-fold increase in the price and forced thousands of farms out of business. ….. READ MORE